Brcerevic: Statistical Office has increased Serbia’s GDP by almost 20% in three reviews since 2014

The Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia has increased the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in each of the three major reviews since 2014 by a total of almost 20%, which is significantly higher than in most European countries. The chief economist of the Fiscal Council, Danko Brcerevic, points out that he does not think that the state is trying to embellish the image of the economy, because such reviews are regularly carried out every five years in other European countries as well.

– However, the problem is that every major review in Serbia, and there have been three since 2014, has brought a large increase in the GDP. Those three reviews combined have increased the GDP by almost 20%, which is significantly more than in most other European countries. The GDP in 2013 was not EUR 32 billion, as was thought at the time, but EUR 38 billion, while the public debt was not 65.4% of the GDP, but 55.1% – said Brcerevic.

He assessed that the Government of Serbia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the rating agencies, and even the Fiscal Council, had worked with significantly underestimated data on the size of the domestic economy, which should not happen.

– Naturally, the question of the reliability of the latest data also arises, will they also change significantly in a few years? In the latest review, the large correction of state spending, which has been increased by as much as 19%, is especially noticeable – Brcerevic pointed out.

According to him, this is an unexpectedly big change, and it refers to a statistical field that is still not fully developed. The Statistical Office, he added, only recently started to publish state finance statistics and the first data show some illogical things regarding the size of public revenues and expenditures as well as the fiscal deficit.

– I hope that these dubious data have not affected the large increase in the estimated state spending, and therefore the new estimate of the GDP. Also, I have certain doubts about the accuracy of the estimated trend in the power sector and some other parts of the GDP – said Brcerevic.

He added that the major changes brought by each review showed that there were problems in the measuring of certain statistical indicators.

– However, the reason for this is not data manipulation, nor insufficient expertise of the employees. The main problem of our statistical office is the lack of capacity. The practice of the EU is that national statistical institutes have between 10 and 20 employees per 100,000 inhabitants – pointed out Brcerevic.

Fiskalni savet Republike Srbije

Međunarodni monetarni fond-MMF Beograd

Republički zavod za statistiku

Fiscal Council

International Monetary Fund

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

Danko Brčerević

nominal gross domestic product of Serbia